₦5.28 Trillion and Counting: Why the North West Must Rethink Amnesty and Invest in Security and Youths

By Isaac Abrak

The North West of Nigeria continues to bleed under the weight of banditry and terrorism. Killings, kidnappings, and sexual violence remain widespread despite repeated state-led amnesty programmes and peace deals. The urgent question now is: are these approaches working, or are they deepening the crisis?

SBM Intelligence, a security research firm, reported that between June 2024 and July 2025, 4,722 people were abducted in 997 incidents nationwide, while 762 were killed. The North West recorded the highest share, with 425 incidents (42.6%) and 2,938 victims (62.2%). Zamfara alone accounted for more than 1,200 victims, making it the epicentre of the violence. Ransom payments remain staggering—₦2.57 billion in just one year, compared to ₦653.7 million in 2022—providing funds for more weapons, motorcycles, and recruits.

Why Peace Deals Keep Failing

1. Negotiating from Weakness

In 2019, Zamfara state offered motorcycles and cash to bandits in exchange for peace. Instead of disarming, they used these resources to expand. Within months, attacks resumed at greater intensity. Similar outcomes occurred in Afghanistan, where the Taliban strengthened through peace gestures that treated them as equal authorities.

Case story (Zamfara): A farmer in Zurmi LGA said his village enjoyed a brief calm after a peace deal, only for bandits to return with more guns at harvest time, taking away their daughters.

2. Too Many Factions

In Katsina, while some groups signed agreements in 2020, others rejected them and escalated attacks. This mirrors Yemen, where fragmented militias rendered ceasefires ineffective.

Case story (Katsina): A schoolteacher in Batsari recalled how her community celebrated a peace announcement—yet weeks later, a rival faction abducted over 20 children on their way to school.

3. Clerics as Negotiators

Clerics and traditional rulers are critical for reconciliation, but direct negotiations sometimes elevated bandit leaders into stakeholders. In Zamfara, photos of clerics meeting notorious commanders undermined state authority and emboldened bandits.

4. Failure to Address Root Causes

Poverty, farmer-herder disputes, unemployment, and lack of schools remain unresolved. In Mali, a 2015 peace accord collapsed because promised development never reached rural communities.

Case story (Sokoto): In Isa LGA, a mother of five admitted her teenage son joined bandits because there were no schools, no jobs, and no hope—yet government officials negotiated with his commanders as if they were legitimate leaders.

5. Banditry as a Business

Kidnapping for ransom has become one of Nigeria’s most profitable criminal enterprises. Amnesty offers or ransom payments only fuel the networks. Even after peace efforts, mass abductions of schoolchildren in Zamfara and Niger continued.

6. Weak Security Follow-Up

After peace deals, security forces often withdraw. This vacuum leaves communities vulnerable. Bandits return quickly, as happened in Yemen, where ceasefires allowed Houthis to regroup.

7. Public Distrust

Survivors feel abandoned when perpetrators are rewarded. In Mali, citizens rejected accords that legitimised violent groups. In Nigeria, villagers ask why killers get cash, while victims get silence.

Policy Lessons for Nigeria

1. Negotiate from Strength – Never enter talks when bandits dominate.
2. End Cash-for-Arms Amnesty– These deals only reward violence.
3. Limit Clerics’ Role – Their counsel is valuable, but the state must lead.
4. Sustain Security– Military and police presence must not retreat after agreements.
5. Tackle Root Causes – Education, jobs, and health must be central.
6. Prioritise Victims – Support survivors before rewarding offenders.
7. Strengthen Regional Security Collaboration– North West states must pool intelligence, create joint databases, and coordinate operations across porous borders.

The Role of Renewed Hope Initiatives

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Economic Empowerment Initiatives—including the National Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (NPRGS), the Conditional Cash Transfer Programme, the MSME Support Scheme, and the Housing and Agricultural Schemes—are promising tools to fight poverty, one of the root causes of insecurity.

But these programmes must not stop at state capitals or remain in policy papers. They need to reach the grassroots in Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Kaduna—particularly hotspot communities most vulnerable to recruitment. If properly implemented, they can give young people alternatives to violence and restore citizens’ faith in government.

The Question of State Allocations

According to Blueprint Newspaper, between June 2023 and June 2025, Nigeria’s 36 states and the FCT collectively received ₦25.557 trillion from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).

Out of this, the seven states of the North West alone received about ₦5.28 trillion —representing roughly 20.6% of the national allocations in just two years.

Breakdown for the North West:

Kano: ₦1.05 trillion
Kaduna: ₦850 billion
Katsina: ₦780 billion
Kebbi: ₦710 billion
Sokoto: ₦690 billion
Jigawa: ₦620 billion
Zamfara: ₦580 billion

These figures represent unprecedented fiscal inflows. Yet paradoxically, the region continues to suffer some of the highest poverty levels and worst insecurity in the country. Unless deliberately channelled into poverty eradication, youth empowerment, agriculture, rural education, and healthcare, these resources risk being wasted—or worse, diverted into ransom payments and insecurity-related wastage.

If just 10% of these allocations were invested into structured youth employment schemes and community security initiatives, the region would reduce poverty significantly while strengthening both kinetic and non-kinetic responses to insecurity. Similarly, allocating 5% to food security and agricultural resilience would reduce hunger and weaken one of the key recruitment tools of bandits: desperation.

Conclusion

The lessons from Afghanistan, Yemen, and Mali are clear: peace deals and amnesty programmes, when pursued without accountability or community empowerment, embolden terrorists. Nigeria must rethink its approach.

This is a clarion call to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the National Security Adviser, the Chief of Defence Staff, the Inspector General of Police, and the State Governors of the North West to act decisively. Security pressure must continue, but equally, empowerment programmes must penetrate deep into rural communities. The National Assembly must join in ensuring laws that strengthen Local Government Financial Autonomy are passed and enforced, so resources reach those most in need.

We must remember: when insurgents mature, they rarely spare the elite. Afghanistan showed us that when the Taliban gained dominance, they targeted judges, legislators, and executives. Nigeria must prevent such a stage from ever arriving and the fall of our democratic system.

Only by combining firm state authority with grassroots economic hope can Nigeria chart a sustainable path to peace.

Isaac Abrak is the recipient of the Reuters Mohammed Amin Award for Africa’s Best Hostile Environment Journalist (2013).
isaaclinus@gmail.com
1/09/2025