A Fraying Tapestry of Strife and Neglect

By Babayola M. Toungo

Northern Nigeria, once celebrated as a vibrant mosaic of peoples and landscapes, now stands perilously close to unravelling. The region’s immense geographical sweep and rich cultural diversity, once regarded as pillars of stability and influence, have become battlegrounds for forces intent on its destabilisation. Rather than serving as sources of resilience, these characteristics have morphed into fault lines, manipulated by both external actors and internal adversaries to further their own ends.

This orchestrated decline is not merely the handiwork of distant, shadowy outsiders, though their influence is ever-present. From the comfort of far-off capitals and corporate boardrooms, architects of discord monitor the unfolding chaos with satisfaction, emboldened by the active complicity of certain Northern Nigerians who, for reasons ranging from ambition to alienation, are willing to forsake both heritage and homeland. These internal collaborators, often estranged by circumstance or geography, have become key instruments in a grand design of fragmentation. Hate mongers and peddlers of chaos – unburdened by conscience – have made this era their plaything, exploiting every crack to deepen the wounds that bleed incessantly across the region.

As a result, Northern Nigeria has been reduced to a perpetual theatre of insecurity. In the northeast, Boko Haram’s shadow looms over everyday existence; in the northwest, bandits have installed themselves as de facto authorities; while in the north-central, farmer-herder conflicts and ethnic militias have transformed the land into a tragic battlefield, where innocent lives are routinely lost. Despite the mounting toll, the region’s political leaders appear more preoccupied with orchestrating rallies in support of Bola Tinubu’s anticipated 2027 presidential bid, fixated on consolidating power instead of stemming the relentless tide of violence and loss.

Meanwhile, the southeast remains ensnared by the violence of IPOB militants, whose atrocities seldom attract the scrutiny they warrant – perhaps because the media landscape is more sympathetic to their narrative. IPOB leaders have shrewdly manipulated both mainstream and social media, recasting their actions in a more favourable light, while their educated and globally connected diaspora amplifies their cause abroad. In stark contrast, the victims of northern violence – whether at the hands of Boko Haram, bandits, or other insurgents – often find themselves isolated from international advocacy, their suffering rendered largely invisible outside the region’s borders.

While IPOB’s victims are predominantly their own ethnic and religious kin, the tragedies afflicting the north cut across a much broader spectrum. The principal sufferers in Boko Haram’s operational zones are local Muslim communities, just as those targeted by bandits in the northwest are overwhelmingly northern inhabitants. Into this volatile landscape has crept the spectre of foreign intervention: Donald Trump’s blustering threats to invade Nigeria, fuelled by IPOB propaganda and briefs orchestrated by vested interests – including those overseeing the 2027 elections – make external meddling a tangible prospect. All that emerges from the north in response is a cacophony of discordant voices, lacking both coherence and resolve. The possibility of American intervention cannot be dismissed lightly; it may well be a calculated gambit to fracture the north along ethnic lines, as predicted in a 2011 report by American Air University faculty, which ominously predicted such disintegration by 2030 – a mere four years away.

Where, then, are the region’s storied leaders? What has become of the north’s legendary political acumen and tradition of inclusivity? How did a land so rich in history and promise descend into such a sorrowful state?

To fully grasp the malaise now afflicting Northern Nigeria, one must revisit the region’s historical journey. The north once stood as a bastion of political and cultural dominance, shaped by the legacies of the Sokoto Caliphate, the Kanem-Bornu Empire, and a web of emirates and chiefdoms that fostered relative stability, scholarly pursuit, and vibrant commerce. After independence, the region played a pivotal role in national politics, producing visionary leaders who prioritised unity and collective advancement. Yet, the gradual erosion of meritocracy and the rise of patronage politics have led to the atrophy of these once-unifying structures.

Against this historical backdrop, the path forward for Northern Nigeria demands a return to the values that once underpinned its strength: inclusivity, dialogue, and purposeful leadership. The region’s leaders and intelligentsia must urgently forge a new consensus – one that transcends parochial interests and addresses the root causes of insecurity, including poverty, youth unemployment, weak institutions, and the collapse of traditional authority. Robust investment in education and economic opportunity is imperative, as are targeted reconciliation initiatives to heal intercommunal rifts. The cultivation of a credible regional voice, capable of advocating for the north’s interests at both national and international levels, is equally vital. Only by rediscovering a shared sense of purpose and harnessing its rich diversity can Northern Nigeria emerge from its present darkness and reclaim its role as a stabilising force within the country.

Yet perhaps the most damning indictment lies with Northern Nigeria’s own leadership – a once-proud cadre now reduced to passive observers in the region’s unravelling. Rather than confronting the existential threats facing their people, northern leaders have demonstrated a staggering lack of vision and resolve, squandering their energies on currying favour with the Tinubu administration and jockeying for crumbs of patronage. Instead of forging a united front to defend northern interests, they have chosen self-preservation and docility, content to play second fiddle in a political arrangement that increasingly marginalises their constituents. The silence and inaction in the face of mounting insecurity, economic decay, and cultural erosion is not mere neglect – it is a profound betrayal of the region’s legacy and its people’s future.

This abdication of responsibility has left Northern Nigeria rudderless, its leaders more concerned with photo opportunities and sycophantic rallies than with the arduous work of advocacy and reform. Their failure to challenge the Tinubu administration’s disregard for northern concerns has emboldened both external and internal forces to exploit the region’s vulnerabilities with impunity. Until the north’s political elite abandon complacency and rediscover the courage to speak and act on behalf of their people, the tapestry of Northern Nigeria will continue to unravel, thread by thread, under the weight of neglect and betrayal.