How Tinubu’s Economic Policies Could Undermine His 2027 Ambitions

By Abdulraheem Abdulgafar

From the moment President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office as Nigeria’s 16th democratically elected leader, the masses have grappled with a series of harsh economic policies, plunging many into deeper hardship.

Nigerians have long expressed their yearning for good governance, as successive administrations have introduced policies that have often exacerbated the struggles of the people. Before the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda promised to restore optimism and smiles to the faces of citizens. However, the reality on the ground suggests that many voters may now feel they bit off more than they could chew, as livelihoods continue to deteriorate under his administration.

This article examines key economic policies under President Tinubu’s leadership and their impact on the masses, questioning how they might affect his chances in the 2027 elections.

Removal of Fuel Subsidy

In his inaugural speech on May 29, 2023, President Tinubu declared the removal of the fuel subsidy, signaling a seismic shift in Nigeria’s economy. While intended to curb corruption and reduce government spending, the policy unleashed immediate hardships.

Fuel prices skyrocketed, with the average cost of petrol rising from N195 to N660 per liter. This hike triggered inflation across all sectors, driving up the cost of education, transportation, food, and healthcare. Independent marketers exacerbated the situation by creating artificial fuel scarcity, further compounding public frustration.

Despite widespread criticism and calls for the reinstatement of the subsidy, the government remained steadfast, insisting that the decision served the national interest. However, controversies later emerged. A Premium Times report on August 19, 2023, revealed that Tinubu approved a request by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Ltd to use the 2023 final dividends due to the federation to pay for petrol subsidy—a move that raised questions about the transparency of the subsidy removal process.

Naira Devaluation

Another significant policy under Tinubu’s administration is the devaluation of the naira, which has severely weakened Nigeria’s economy.

When Tinubu took office, the naira traded at N462.5 to the dollar. By January 2024, the exchange rate had worsened to N911.8. The naira’s depreciation continued, hitting N1,640 in the parallel market by September 2024—a 44% year-on-year decline.

The currency’s volatility has strained businesses, increased the cost of imports, and eroded the purchasing power of ordinary Nigerians.

Rising Inflation

Under Tinubu’s leadership, inflation has soared to record levels. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, inflation stood at 22.41% in May 2023. By January 2024, it had climbed to 29.90%, and by June, it reached a staggering 34.19%.

Key drivers of this inflation include the devaluation of the naira, rising energy costs, fiscal deficits, and persistent insecurity in food-producing regions. This has made basic commodities and services increasingly unaffordable for many Nigerians.

Electricity Tariff Increase

Amid these economic challenges, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) announced an increase in electricity tariffs in April 2024. Customers under the Band A category now pay N225 per kilowatt, a decision widely criticized by the Nigeria Labour Congress, Trade Union Congress, and the Organised Private Sector.

This increase has further strained household budgets, leaving many Nigerians feeling abandoned by their government.

Tinubu’s 2027 Prospects: A Dim Future?

Historically, Nigerian presidents have sought two terms, and Tinubu appears no different. Supporters have already begun campaigning for his re-election, with billboards in Abuja proclaiming “Tinubu 2027.”

However, the road to 2027 may not be smooth. Opposition parties are reportedly working on a merger to unseat the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the next election, leveraging public dissatisfaction with the government’s economic policies.

With mounting hardships and political opposition, Tinubu faces an uphill battle to retain his seat in 2027. The question remains: will his administration address these economic woes and rebuild public trust, or will his policies ultimately cost him a second term?