Why Nigeria’s Opposition Must Form a New Party

By Umar Ardo, Ph.D

In recent discussions, prominent opposition leaders in Nigeria are exploring forming a coalition to unseat the incumbent president in the forthcoming 2027 elections. However, their current strategy appears centered not on registering their own political party but on defecting to an existing one, driven by the belief that the government would block any attempt to register a new political party. With all respects, this line of reasoning is not only strategically flawed but historically doomed. It is a defeatist stance that betrays a lack of confidence, creativity and political will, and poor understanding of dynamics of politics – qualities essential for any genuine political evolution!

2. It is this context that inspired some of us in the League of Northern Democrats (LND) to consider taking the bold step of registering the LND as a political party. The stand to register LND is a clear testament to pragmatic strategy, a belief in bold political innovation, institutional integrity and democratic renewal. Moreover, LND’s registration drive will be an advocation for collaboration and cooperation with all key opposition stakeholders to consolidate into a broader national movement for democratic change. Anything short of this is defeatist!

3. As a matter of fact, Nigeria’s political history is replete with examples of failed coalitions using existing platforms. In the First Republic, the coalition between the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) disintegrated under political pressure and ideological differences. Similarly, during the Second Republic, alliances between the Nigerian People’s Party (NPP), Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Great Nigeria People’s Party (GNPP) and People’s Redemption Party (PRP) proved ineffective due to lack of trust and common purpose. Even more recently, as a result of poor strategy, attempts by Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to build coalitions in the Fourth Republic to defeat the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) fizzled out, unable to overcome individual ambitions.

4. These historical lessons emphasize the futility of forming coalitions without a new and unified structure. In Aristotle’s ‘Politics’, he argues that “a city is not made by a multitude, but by a unity of purpose.” The same principle applies to political parties. Fragmented coalitions lack the unified purpose needed to succeed in Nigeria’s highly competitive political arena. Only through the creation of a new political party can opposition leaders achieve this unity. And there is still time to do so!

5. Forming a new political party is the most logical and effective course of action for the opposition. It has huge strategic advantages. The successful formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2013 – an amalgamation of various opposition parties – demonstrates the power of starting anew. The APC’s victory in the 2015 elections was not merely due to discontent with the PDP but also to the perception of a fresh, united and purpose-driven movement.

6. Sun Tzu, in ‘The Art of War’, emphasizes that “opportunities multiply as they are seized.” By creating a new party, the opposition would not only consolidate their strengths but also weaken their former parties. Their departure would sow chaos within the PDP, APC and Labour Parties, giving the new party a strategic advantage. Furthermore, this move would inspire public confidence by signaling the opposition’s seriousness about change. Voters are more likely to rally behind a movement that projects strength and unity rather than fragmented factions operating under different banners. The LND, through its party registration process, will be paving the way for such unity by positioning itself as a platform for all progressive stakeholders.

7. The opposition’s fear that the government will block the registration of a new party is both speculative and defeatist. While it is true that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is often subject to political pressure, the mere attempt to register a new party would expose any potential bias. Socrates’ philosophical precept that “an unexamined life is not worth living” applies here. Just as individuals must test their principles, democratic institutions must be scrutinized for their integrity. If the opposition is denied registration after fulfilling all legal requirements, it would further expose the government’s manipulation and discredit both INEC and the ruling party. By itself, the politics of registering a new political party can be a catalyst for the defeat of incumbency.

8. Such a scenario would also provide the opposition with a moral high ground, leveraging public outrage to build a strong support base while pursuing legal redress through a writ of mandamus to compel registration. If the judiciary fails to act impartially as well, it would further tarnish the credibility of this key democratic institution, raising the stakes even higher and creating more political capital for the opposition.

9. The opposition’s proactive effort to register a political party would not just be an exercise in resilience but also a potential test case for Nigeria’s democratic integrity. If blocked, the opposition stands tall to expose institutional bias and rally public support for democratic reforms.

10. But by refusing to attempt registration of a new party, the opposition would only reveal a lack of political courage. Niccolò Machiavelli’s dictum that “Fortune favors the bold” underscores the importance of decisive action in politics. Timidity and hesitation have never been the hallmarks of successful political movements. In contrast, boldness often inspires loyalty and respect. Voters are drawn to leaders who demonstrate conviction and a willingness to challenge the status quo. The current opposition strategy, however, projects uncertainty and fear, which are both unlikely to galvanize public support for the opposition and emboldening the government to push through more electoral devilry.

11. However, the opposition’s boldness to seek registration and advocating for a national coalition is the type of decisive action that inspires voter confidence. It would also position the opposition as a credible alternative for Nigerians seeking real change. Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s assertion that “Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains” speaks to the current state of Nigeria’s democracy. While the country is nominally democratic, its institutions remain chained by entrenched interests. The formation of a new political party would symbolize a break from these chains – a bold step toward genuine democratic renewal!

12. By creating a new political party, opposition leaders would not only assert their independence but also offer Nigerians a true alternative. Such a move would demonstrate their commitment to democratic principles and their willingness to fight for the people’s right to choose their leaders freely. The LND embodies this commitment and stands ready to collaborate with all like-minded opposition forces.

13. But the current strategy of Nigeria’s key opposition leaders is defeatist, illogical and historically unsound. Rather than relying on fragmented coalitions into existing platforms, opposition leaders must embrace the bold and strategic path of forming a new political party. LND’s registration resolve exemplifies this path and should serve as a rallying point for all opposition stakeholders. This move would not only consolidate their strengths but also both frighten and weaken the ruling party, expose institutional flaws and inspire public confidence.

14. If the opposition genuinely seeks to win the 2027 elections, then they must abandon their fear-driven defeatist approach and take decisive action. Only by embracing boldness and innovation can they hope to achieve the political change Nigeria so desperately needs.