The War in the Middle East: Africa Must Rise to Prevent Global Catastrophe

By Umar Ardo, Ph.D

With the wars in the Middle East between Israel and Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and now with Iran, the situation in that region is indeed volatile. However, the recent reports that Pakistan has warned the United States and France of a nuclear response against Israel – should Iran come under nuclear attack – have made the situation even more perilous, not just for the region but toward bringing the world close to a global catastrophe. Pakistan’s further warning that it would join Iran in war if any country takes up arms against Tehran signals a dangerous expansion of the conflict currently raging in the Middle East.

2. The Israeli military campaigns, backed by the U.S. and key Western allies, has triggered a counter-alignment led by Iran and supported by Russia, China and now Pakistan. The world is witnessing the re-emergence of geopolitical blocs, reminiscent of alliances that once plunged humanity into world wars.

3. As a historian, one sees the unfolding scene with serious trepidation as it is reminiscent of past catastrophes. From the Thirty Years’ War of the 17th century to the First and Second World Wars, and the Cold War, history is replete with warnings: localized conflicts, if unchecked, can rapidly escalate into global disasters when entangled in rigid alliances and ideological fervor. But unlike the previous wars without weapons of total extinction, the current situation is simply a threat to the entire human existence, as the usage of nuclear weapons can end human life on earth.

4. In the Thirty Years’ War of 1618–1648, what began as a dispute between Catholic and Protestant states in the Holy Roman Empire morphed into a continent-wide war, drawing in Spain, France, Sweden and others. The war left much of Central Europe devastated. Its conclusion at the Peace of Westphalia set the precedent for sovereign equality and non-intervention, laying the foundation for modern international diplomacy.
5. In 1914, a single assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand triggered a war that spiraled due to rigid military alliances and nationalist fervor. Germany, Austria-Hungary and Turkey faced off against Britain, France and Russia in a catastrophic conflict that resulted in millions of deaths, devastation of Europe, the redrawing of maps and the collapse of empires. All these due to a web of military alliances.
6. ⁠Borne out of the unresolved tensions of WWI and fueled by ideological extremism and territorial ambition, WWII introduced mechanized and total warfare on a global scale. The Allied and Axis blocs fought across Europe, Asia and Africa. The war ended with the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and led directly to the Cold War.
7. ⁠The Cold War further demonstrated how ideological rivalry and nuclear brinkmanship could hold the entire world hostage. Although never erupting into direct conflict between the United States and the Soviet Union, the Cold War structured global politics around two rival power blocs. Proxy wars, nuclear brinkmanship and ideological struggles dominated the era, again demonstrating how systemic rivalry can hold the world hostage to annihilation.
8. ⁠These wars all shared a dangerous pattern: the gradual hardening of sides, the demonization of opponents, the collapse of diplomacy and eventually the mass destruction of lives and civilizations.
9. ⁠Today, Israel’s sustained military offensives ostensibly as national defense, have extended beyond Gaza to Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and now to direct confrontations with Iran. Backed diplomatically, financially and militarily by the United States and European allies, Israel continues to act with impunity.
10. ⁠Meanwhile, Iran is no longer isolated. It has gained the firm backing of Russia and China, two global powers already in strategic competition with the West. Pakistan’s open threat to use nuclear weapons on Israel if nuclear attack is carried against Iran marks a dramatic escalation and a point of no return should such threats materialize.
11. ⁠The contours of a new global alignment are rapidly taking shape, and the stakes could not be higher. Given the dire situation, African responsibility is to engender peace. Certainly Africa has long been the theater of proxy wars, yet it has also been a symbol of resilience, neutrality and moral clarity. In this looming global crisis, Africa must no longer be a silent bystander. It must act as a diplomatic stabilizer and voice of reason.
12. Nigeria, as the most populous African country, a leading regional power and a respected voice in international diplomacy, must now lead the continent’s response. To this end, Nigeria should immediately undertake the following tasks:
i. Convene an Emergency African Peace Summit: Nigeria should work through the African Union to urgently convene African leaders and formulate a unified peace position, warning against further escalation and rejecting nuclear threats from all parties.
ii. Position Africa as a Neutral Mediator: Nigeria can act as a diplomatic bridge between the warring blocs. With longstanding relations across the East and West, Nigeria is well-placed to facilitate back-channel talks between Iran, the West, and Israel.
iii. Declare a Continental Policy of Peaceful Non-Alignment: Africa must not be dragged into the rivalries of distant empires. Nigeria should advocate for a new African Doctrine of Non-Alignment, insisting on neutrality, dialogue, and peaceful resolution of global conflicts.
iv. Deploy Peace Envoys and Observers: Nigeria and the African Union should offer to send respected African diplomats and envoys to engage with regional actors in the Middle East, helping to open lines of communication and reduce tensions.
v. Use Africa’s Moral Voice for Global Conscience: With a history marked by colonial violence and post-independence struggles, Africa knows the pain of war and oppression. Nigeria should speak from this experience to warn the world of the catastrophic consequences of escalation and to plead for peace.

13. History is speaking again – loud and clear! When alliances harden and diplomacy fails, war becomes inevitable. But war is not destiny. It is a choice. And peace is still possible. Nigeria and Africa must now choose to lead – not from a place of fear, but from the strength of moral clarity, historical wisdom and the courage to speak truth to power. In doing so, we not only help protect the world – we protect our future!

14. The time to act is now.

Dr. Umar Ardo is a Historian, Public Affairs Analyst and a former presidential adviser. He writes from Abuja.