By Babayola M. Toungo
The purported alliance between Igbo and Yoruba separatists – whether still at the level of rhetoric or already seeking operational expression – ought to force a moment of deep introspection in the North. Not panic. Not threats. Not ritualistic appeals to the indivisibility of Nigeria. But reflection. Nations do not fracture suddenly; they unravel slowly, often in full view of those who insist that unraveling is impossible. The danger for the North is not that others are imagining alternatives to Nigeria, but that it has long refused to do so itself.
For decades, the North has approached the Nigerian project as a fixed inheritance rather than a conditional compact. Unity has been treated as destiny, something to be defended by numbers, history, or force of habit. This mindset has discouraged strategic thinking. It has also bred a culture in which imagining a future outside the existing arrangement is equated with treason, rather than recognised as a legitimate exercise in foresight. Yet serious political communities prepare for contingencies; only fragile ones pretend that contingency itself is illegitimate.
The present moment demands that the North begin to think in scenarios – best case and worst case – not because disintegration is desirable, but because unpreparedness is dangerous. The first step in this process is internal: a hard, unsentimental audit of the region’s condition. Before assessing what an Igbo – Yoruba separatist convergence might mean, the North must confront its own unresolved crises. Insecurity has become structural rather than episodic. Educational decline is no longer a warning sign but a defining feature. Poverty has ceased to shock. Governance, in many states, is indistinguishable from maintenance of patronage networks.
This internal decay matters because, in any future – united Nigeria, restructured federation, or fragmented polity – the North’s fate will depend primarily on the quality of its internal organisation. Central power has long masked local failure. Access to federal resources has substituted for productivity. Political influence at the centre has delayed the reckoning that functional regions eventually face: how to generate wealth, secure territory, and maintain legitimacy among their own populations.
If Nigeria were to survive and reform itself meaningfully, the North would still have to answer these questions. But if Nigeria were to fracture, the cost of evasion would be catastrophic. This is why scenario-building must move from abstract debate to serious reflection. In a best-case scenario – whether through deep restructuring or peaceful separation – the North would emerge as a coherent political and economic space capable of self-management. That would require confronting long-standing taboos: redefining governance beyond identity; prioritising education over symbolism; and replacing elite consensus with social legitimacy.
In such a best-case future, agriculture would no longer be a slogan but a system, linked to value chains, storage, and markets. Demography would be an asset because young people would be educated, skilled, and employable, rather than merely numerous. Security would be locally grounded and accountable, not outsourced to emergency deployments. Faith would remain central to social life, but it would no longer be used to anesthetise citizens in the face of failure.
The worst-case scenario is more sobering. A chaotic collapse of the federation would expose the North’s vulnerabilities with brutal speed. Borders would harden without preparation. Armed groups would seek legitimacy before institutions do. Scarcity would intensify competition over land and water. Millions, already living on the edge, would find themselves without a state capable of protection or provision. In such a context, historical claims and moral appeals would offer no insulation against reality.
The tendency to dismiss such scenarios as alarmist is itself a symptom of denial. The purpose of thinking through worst cases is not to invite them, but to reduce their likelihood and mitigate their impact. Strategic foresight is an act of responsibility, not disloyalty. Regions that refuse to imagine breakdown often accelerate it by being the least prepared when it occurs.
Yet this reflection should not degenerate into fatalism. The North is not without strengths. Its landmass, strategic location, and human resources remain significant. Its cultural emphasis on community and social obligation can still be mobilised for collective action. But potential is not destiny. Without deliberate investment in human capital, institutions, and trust, these advantages will continue to decay into liabilities.
Equally important is who conducts this conversation. It cannot be left to the same political class whose failures have made it necessary. Northern youth, women, professionals, traditional authorities, and civil society must all be part of a broad, honest dialogue about the future. This is not a call for secessionist organising, but for intellectual independence – the courage to think beyond inherited scripts.
Paradoxically, the North’s strongest argument for Nigeria’s continued unity would emerge from such preparation. A region that has thought seriously about standing on its own feet will negotiate the federation from a position of confidence rather than fear. One that cannot imagine survival outside the union will cling to unity as a substitute for reform, confusing dependence with patriotism.
The rumours of separatist alliance in the South may fade or intensify; their trajectory is not fully within northern control. What is within control is whether the North continues to treat the future as something that happens to it, or something it actively prepares for. Soul-searching, strategic imagination, and internal renewal are not luxuries. They are the minimum price of survival – within Nigeria, or beyond it.